NEW YEAR Call - SUDARSHAN CHEMICALS

Sudarshan Chemicals
CMP - 385

One can expect multibagger gains from this price also!


This is not an investment advice. Readers should consult their financial advisor before making any investments. Happy & SleepEasy Investing. Disc.: Invested

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Dear Subscribers and Followers:

I had recommended on March 14 2017:

Top Ideas March 2017

Edelweiss - 14/3/17 - Market Price 135, Market Price on 22/12/17 - 293
PNC Infratech - 14/3/17 - Market Price 104, Market Price on 22/12/17 - 213
Repco Home - 14/3/17 - Market Price 630, Market Price on 22/12/17 - 684
United Spirits - 14/3/17 - Market Price 2250, Market Price on 22/12/17 - 3552
Solar Inds - 14/3/17 - Market Price 720, Market Price on 22/12/17 - 1183
Morepen Labs - 14/3/17 - Market Price 20, Market Price on 22/12/17 - 38

As on today: they have cumulatively given a return of around 75% i.e. in ONLY 9 Months with absolutely HAPPY & SLEEPEASY Investing Model.

To give you all a prospective:
An investment of only 1Lac per script on 14/3/17, TOTAl of 6lac is valued today at 10.40Lac post brokerage expenses.

Subscribers and Followers should consult their financial advisor before making any investments.

Hope we all carry on growing our personal MoneyTree...

HAPPY & SLEEPEASY INVESTING!

GTL Infra

GTL Infra – A turnaround story
CMP-6.21

1. Merging of GTL Infra and CNIL will be done soon.
2. Combined revenue will be about 2600cr and EBITDA is about 1300cr.
3. Banks converted the loan into equities at Rs.4 per share of Rs.10FV. CMP is 6.21.
4. Debt is reduced from 13500 (2011 year) to roughly abt 3800cr now.
5. More than 60% of revenue come from Bharti, Idea & Vodafone and JIO (future key players).
6. They are ready for 5G service without any major cash requirement.
7. 27800 towers across 22 telecom circles.
8. It is the lowest debt tower company in India.
9. ET Now best Infrastructure Brand for 2016.
10. Only third-party tower company in the market.
11. Stake sale will from 51% to 76%, will be completed before April 2018.
12. Govt is supportive for telecom, 100% permit for FDI.
13. JIO needs 1Lakh tower additionally as per Ambani.
14. Average data consumption has shot upto 10GB/Month from approx 700MB/Month from 1 year ago.

15. Demand of tower is very high in future.
16. Delivery volumes are HUGE.
17. TRAI is very strict on call drops and charges a big penalty, so more and more towers are required.

http://m.thehindubusinessline.com/info-tech/after-atc-tower-deal-gtl-eyeing-15300cr- valuation/article9962590.ece

https://m.economictimes.com/markets/stocks/news/bain-piramal-aion-among-4-in-race-to-buy-58- stake-in-gtl- infrastructure/articleshow/61678238.cms?utm_expid=.9mgylBgORSGl_UJ6lInckw.0&utm_referrer=h ttps://www.google.co.in/

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/lenders-may-push-aircel-to-buy-gtls-2- 5bn-tower-co/articleshow/61679605.cms 

http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-cm/gtl-infrastructure-reports-standalone-net-loss-of-rs-46-33-crore-in-the-september-2017-quarter-117111500694_1.html

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/info-tech/gtl-infrastructure-to-refinance-rs-4800cr-debt-in-3-months/article9909836.ece

This is not an investment advice. Readers should consult their financial advisor before making any investments. Happy & SleepEasy Investing. Disc.: Invested

Buy List by end of this year

FINAL LIST end of year consideration for long term:

Solar Inds CMP: 1115 (gain of 55%, since 14/3/17)
PNC Infra CMP: 175 (gain of 70%, since 14/3/17)
Edelweiss CMP: 278 (gain of 110%, since 14/3/17)
HBL Power CMP: 58 (gain of close to 50%, since 29/6/17)

Canfin Homes    CMP: 431 (New consideration for Blog followers)
Deepak Nitrite   CMP: 210 (New consideration for Blog followers)
Take Solutions   CMP: 151 (New consideration for Blog followers)
SREI Infra          CMP:   96 (New consideration for Blog followers)
Munjal Auto       CMP:   80 (New consideration for Blog followers)
Reliance Capital CMP: 406 (New consideration for Blog followers)

USL CMP: 3100 (gain of close to 40%, since 14/3/17. Book partial profits Recommended)
Repco Home: CMP 620 (loss of Rs. 10/share, since 14/3/17. Exit Recommended)
Sanghi Inds: CMP 117 (gain of 70%, since 13/4/17. Book partial profits recommended on 10/10/17)
Quickheal Tech: CMP 225 (loss of Rs.19/share, Exit near cost or in 1 month time)
Tilaknagar Inds: CMP 16.5 (gain of close to 20%, since 10/10/17. HOLD)

Dtd: 16 Nov 2017
Happy & SleepEasy Investing. Disc.: Invested and recommended at lower prices.
Prepared this during market hours hence prices could differ at end of days trade.
This is not an investment advise. Readers should consult their financial advisor before making any investments.

Tilaknagar Inds

Tilaknagar Inds Ltd.(TI) CMP 14.

One can consider the same as restructuring activities are under way. One can expect 2-3x returns extremely soon. High Risk High Reward.

Solar Inds - Power Packed Performance on its way!

Solar Inds Ltd - CMP 873

1) Industrial explosives sector is expected to grow at 10% volume growth over the next 3 years but company expects to grow at 15% volume growth. The company plans to increase its explosives manufacturing capacity from 4.4 lakh MT currently to 7 lakh MT by 2020. We expect the company to have volume growth close to 17-18%.
2) Company now has orders of Rs.180crs in defense and deliveries has already started and expects Rs.100 crs in current year. Long term target for defense remains at INR 500crs+ by 2020.
3) Total capex of approx Rs. 900crs over next 3 years with plans to setup manufacturing capacity in Australia, Ghana and 3 other countries. Company now envisions to grow overseas sales to Rs. 1000crs+ by 2020 from current INR 350crs.
4) South Africa Division utilization by year end would be at 70% and expects Rs. 60crs revenue in current year and expects to achieve total overseas revenue of Rs. 600crs in the current year.
5) The company is bidding for 8 critical RFPs and RFQs by Government of India out of which company expects to get order for 3 products.
6) Delay in procedural issues from Government side has led to slower execution of defense products. However, North Korea tensions along with India and China standoff at Doklam has led to pick up in order enquiries. Company expects healthy traction in defense segment by Q3 FY18 onwards.
7) Promoters have increased their stake from 72.98 to 73.15 recently.
8) We expect this company to atleast double from here in the next 15-18 months.

This is not an investment advice. Readers should consult their financial advisor before making any investments. Happy & SleepEasy Investing. Disc.: Invested

Excerpts from KRChoksey Institutional Report.

GHCL - Commodity Chemical Co. at cheap PE and Super Valuation

GHCL - CMP 235

Buy back by promoters is at the last leg now. One can aggressively look to build positions in this company. One can expect atleast a 30-35% cagr return for the next 3-4 years. Enjoy this sleep easy bet and this is my view only. Please consult your financial advisor first before investing.

HBL Power Systems - Multi Bagger in Making

HBL POWER SYSTEMS LTD. CMP 40.

Friends with patience should strongly consider looking into this company further. Timeframe over 1year.

Key Highlights of HBL
· HBL Power Systems Ltd is a listed Indian company, in business since 1977, with a focus on engineered products and services. Their initial business strategy was to identify technology gaps in India.

· The first products selected and successfully developed were Aircraft batteries - eventually leading to HBL offering the worlds widest range of specialized batteries.

· The company moved into new businesses and markets that utilise batteries, such as industrial electronics, defence electronics and railway electronic signalling.

· Recent diversification, leveraging the companies engineering strengths, has led to new businesses in precision manufacturing, spun reinforced concrete and 'green' technology products such as solar pumps, automobiles batteries and solar rooftop panels.

· Citigroup Inc. holds a 6.6% stake

· HDFC Infra MF, IDFC MF, and L&T Infra (L&T recently added in March 2017) holding stake in HBL Power.

· Promotors have been slowly and steadily been increasing stake, now at 74.24% and no pledging.

· Companies TopLine and BottomLine are the highest ever and this is just the beginning. Currently trading at PE of 28x which has been coming down due to the good numbers. Its a matter of time till this GEM will be rerated and would be the new Talk of this Market.

·With an equity capital of Rs. 25.30 crore and reserves of Rs.574 crore. Performance of the company is increasing year after year. It has posted an EPS of 1.16 in FY17 against the EPS of 0.16 in FY16. Profits have increased more than 400% in FY17 on comparing with FY16, company has posted a profit of 34.73 Crores in FY17 compared to a profit of 6.85 crores in FY16.

I would say future is v.bright for HBL. Please do keep in mind that one should look for a long term prospective only 1year+.

You can view the entire text of Chairman's speech of HBL dtd March 2016: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/hbl-power-systems-ltd/chairmanspeech/companyid-12111.cms

This is not an investment advise. Readers should consult their financial advisor before making any investments. Happy & SleepEasy Investing. Disc.: Invested

Sanghi Inds Ltd. - Post Result

·        Net revenue declined by 19% y-o-y and 9% q-o-q to INR 247 crs. Net revenue declined significantly due to lower realization per tonne of cement during demonetization and it stretched for next couple of months.
·        EBITDA declined 31% y-o-y but it improved 1% q-o-q due to marginal improvement in cost sequentially.
·       Sanghi has reported INR 26crs PAT against INR 3crs loss in Q4FY16 and INR 5crs PAT in Q3FY17. The higher PAT is attributable to INR 9.68crs of tax credit. The adjusted PAT in Q4FY17 was INR 17crs.
·       Sanghis capacity expansion got delayed by couple of quarters due to lack of funds. Management is confident of getting financial closure in next couple of quarters.
·       Sanghi is currently trading at 8.1x FY18E and 6.2x FY19E EV/EBITDA and an EV/tonne of USD 75.

Sanghi Industries Limited reported a mixed set of numbers in its Q4FY17 financial number. Net revenue decreased due to lower realisation and lower clinker sales volume while net profit remained largley in-line with estimate. Net revenue declined by 22% y-o-y and 9% q-o-q to INR 247 crs due to 85% y-o-y declined clinker sales volume to 34k tonne and 10% decreased in blended realisation to INR 3,150 per tonne. The lower realisation is attributable to demonetization which has stretched for next couple of months. The lower clinker sales volume is because of an expansion of grinding capacity. Sanghi reported 44% decline in EBITDA to INR 42crs but it remained flat sequentially. Company reported 158bps q-o-q expansion in EBITDA while it declined 660bps y-o-y to 17%. In Q4FY17, Sanghi has registered INR 541 per tonne of EBITDA as against INR 504 in Q3FY17 and INR 828 in Q4FY16. Sanghi reported INR 26crs of PAT against INR 3crs loss in Q4FY16 and INR 5crs PAT in Q3FY17. With an adjustment of tax credit of INR 9.68crs, Company reported INR 17crs of PAT.      

Subdued clinker sales dented the net revenue
Sanghi industries limited has reported 10% y-o-y and 32% q-o-q growth in cement sales volume to 7.42lac tonne as against 6.74lac tonne in Q4FY16 and 5.64lac tonne in Q3FY17. As per internal policy, Company decided to reduce the clinker sales because of an expansion of 1.2mn tonne of grinding plant at existing site last year. Consequently, clinker sales reduced 85% y-o-y and 87% q-o-q to 34k tonne in Q4FY17. RMC sales improved sequentially, however it declined 29% y-o-y to 0.07lac tonne. The average clinker sale was 11% of total sales volume in 13 quarters. The average realization of clinker is USD 30 per tonne, significantly lower than cement realization. We believe the increasing proportion of cement sales in total volume will increase the realization per tonne.

The lower operating cost protected EBITDA per tonne
The operating cost remained under control which has protected EBITDA per tonne sequentially. The operating cost per tonne of cement production was INR 2,609 as against INR 2,727 in Q3FY17 and 2,654 in Q4FY16. Consequently, Sanghi has reported EBITDA per tonne of INR INR 541 as compared to INR 504/tonne in Q3FY17 and INR 828/tonne in Q4FY16. We believe the cost per tonne of cement production to decline a) company has put conveyor belt for limestone transportation and b) currently Sanghi uses 40% Lignite for power plant and the replacement of VAT & Excise from GST will reduce the tax rate from 28% to 5%  to Lignite producer which is expected to pass on to end consumer. We believe per tonne of cement production cost to moderate going forward.

Capex
Sanghi’s capacity expansion got delayed by couple of quarters due to lack of funds. Management is confident of getting financial closure in next couple of quarters. The total capital outlay for the next leg of expansion is INR 1,250crs. The next leg of capex entails 4.1mt grinding units, 3.3mt clinker capacity and a 63MW power project, which will take the company’s total capacity of grinding to 8.1mt, clinker to 6.6mt and power to 126MW.

Valuation
Sanghi is currently trading at 8.1x FY18E and 6.2x FY19E EV/EBITDA and an EV/tonne of USD 75. We believe, Sanghi has potential to trade at higher multiple from current levels led by virtue of being a low cost producer and securing a long term contact for raw material near to its plant.

I would say it still has a multibagger potential over a 3-5-7 year period.




Excerpts from Edelweiss

Cement Play - Sanghi Inds Ltd

Sanghi Inds Ltd. - CMP 69

Sanghi Industries is a well integrated cement manufacturing player based in Gujarat with an installed grinding capacity of 4MTPA, clinker capacity of 3.6MTPA and a 60MW multi-fuel power plant. It has next door access to excellent quality raw material lends it the distinction of being the lowest cost cement producer in the state and also leads to production of the best quality cement, therefore it commands a premium price in the Gujarat.

Sanghi generates one of the highest EBITDA per tonne in the western region on account of:
a) lower raw material cost; b) lowest labour cost; and c) lowest power & fuel cost in the industry because of multi-fuel power plant, own jetty to import coal & pet coke and availability of lignite within 43km range.


Future: -

Sanghi is undertaking a comprehensive capacity expansion in a planned and phased manner which will take total capacity of grinding to approx 8mt, clinker to 6.6mt and power to 126MW by 2020. Sanghi has set up terminals at Navlakhi in Gujarat & Dharamtar in Maharashtra and also ordered 2 ships to cater to the market via the coastal route.


One can expect fireworks in this counter within this calendar year!


Excerpts from Edelweiss

Indian Equity Future

The Investment Opportunity

Everyone thinks they know about the Indian economy – crappy infrastructure, corruption, bureaucracy and antiquated institutions but with a massively growing middle class. Well, that is the narrative and has been for the last 15 years.

But that phase is over and no one noticed. So few people in the investment community or even Silicon Valley are even vaguely aware of what has happened in India and that has created an enormous investment opportunity.

The future for India is massive technological advancement, a higher trend rate of GDP and more tax revenues. Tax revenues will fund infrastructure – ports, roads, rail and healthcare. Technology will increase agricultural productivity, online services and manufacturing productivity.

Telecom, banking, insurance and online retailing will boom, as will the tech sector.

Nothing in India will be the same again.

FDI is already exploding and will rise massively in the years ahead as technology giants and others pour into India to take advantage of the opportunity...

Source: Raoul Pal

Business Today - INDIA On the cusp of change

Digital Future - Quickheal Technologies Ltd.

Quickheal Tech - CMP 244

Quick Heal Technologies is building a vibrant product portfolio and establishing leadership across all segments.

Quickheal Tech declared better than expected Q3FY17 performance, taking into account demonitization impact on the topline. Enterprise & Mobile segments has maintained momentum and will carry on doing so in this digital environment thanks to BJP government and policies on Smart Cities and Rural Broadband push (BharatNet). 
This is completely a SleepEasy bet to me, to multiply your investments. 
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Update: 17th March

ICICI bank also asks all their clients to have antivirus softwares for their security. 

Updates to my Top Ideas March 2017

Updates - 1 dtd. 15th March
Repco -
Housing fin cos in focus: Operating guidelines for the Credit Linked Subsidy Scheme for Middle Income Group announced...Basically its a Game changer! Tax benefit of Rs 2.4 lakh to first-time home buyers.


USL - 

Karnataka Budget: VAT On Liquor, Beer, Wine, Feni Lifted; Additional Excise On Liquor Abolished. This itself is big news for USL to power ahead!

Updates - 2 dtd. 27th March
PNC Infra -
PNC Infratech wins Rs 2,720cr road contract from NHAI in UP, MP

USL - 

United Spirits has redesigned look of McDowell’s No.1, Royal Challenge and Signature whisky brands and backed it up with extensive advertising. Further more they have hired IITsians improve the company’s whisky ageing process and packaging processes and facilitate launching of new flavours.
https://qz.com/936396/united-spirits-is-getting-iit-researchers-to-explore-the-best-ways-to-give-you-a-high/

http://www.indiainfoline.com/article/news-top-story/united-spirits-united-spirits-to-improve-quality-of-products-collaborates-with-iitians-117031800320_1.html

Repco - 

Repco ties up with NHB to roll out subsidy scheme for middle-income group (MIG).http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/money-and-banking/repco-ties-up-with-nhb-to-roll-out-subsidy-scheme-for-middleincome-group/article9601811.ece

Micromanager-in-Chief- Narendra Modi Upends How India Is Run - WSJ

Micromanager-in-chief Narendra Modi upends how India is run https://www.wsj.com/articles/micromanager-in-chief-modi-upends-how-india-is-run-1489078081 via @WSJ

Top Ideas March 2017

Edelweisse - CMP 135
PNC Infratech - CMP 104
Repco Home Finance - CMP 630
United Spirits - CMP 2250
Solar Inds - CMP 720
Morepen Labs - CMP 20

Notes: -
I expect these to outperform over a 6 month period surely.
Edelweisse has outperformed in the last 2 quarters, but has still a long way to go.
PNC after the thumping BJP majority will fall on track and start its northern journey.
Repco will be aided further after BJP is on track for policy implementation and housing for all.
USL growing middle class income and lower previous quarters base will aid this script further.
Solar Inds will reach incremental sales due to defence program expenditure of the country along with the Defence portfolio going to Mr. Jaitley.
Morepen Labs has been posting extremely good results and has been bearing the brunt of the pharma sector as a whole. Super times ahead for this company.

Disclaimer: - 
I have been investing in these at every level. These are only a few of my current ideas for the Public Domain. Please do write back to understand my views and subscription to Multicap Laxmi!

About Me

I have been in stock markets since 2006. I have wanting to create my own legacy and make family and friends around me proud. At last something in me woke up to create this very blog!
I have been helping family, friends and friends'-friend's since then and created fortunes doing so for them without any remuneration.
I would like to offer my services today for a small subscription based fee which would help you make superlative profits and outperform the index. Please email me for further queries. Happy Investing!